Ontario’s Election Is Officially On and Polls Predict a BIG WIN for Ford

Do You Really Want Another Four Years of Ford Government?

A  Commentary by Niagara At Large reporter and publisher Doug Draper

Posted May 2nd, 2022 on Niagara At Large

I know that there are more than a few people out there who put little stock in polls when it comes to predicting the outcome of elections.

Then there is that old line that the only poll that really counts is the one when the final votes are counted on Election Day. As hard a line it is to argue with, it is most often used by those who find the party they support running behind in the polls.

As a journalist who’s had a hand in covering more elections than I care to count, I have my issues with polls too – not least of which is what appears to the a practice of too many news outlets (especially in recent years) to substitute stories on polls for good, in-depth coverage of the candidates and their policies.

That being said, it is hard to ignore polls completely, just as it is hard to ignore the fact that over the years, pollsters have become better at forecasting elections with a high degree of accuracy.

So as this Ontario election gets officially underway, it is hard to ignore polls that since the early weeks of this year, and right up to the end of this April, have continuously shown that if voters went to the polls today, the Conservative Party of Doug Ford would win well over enough seats (a total of 77 when it only needs 63) to secure a majority government for the next four years.

The numbers also show that as of this April 30th when the last polls were taken, Ford’s chances of winning a majority over the Liberals, NDP and Greens is 97 per cent. https://338canada.com/ontario/

That adds up to quite a commanding lead as the Ontario election officially gets underway and it is going to require quite a shift in support among voters June 2nd election day (only about 30 days from now) for the outcome to be any different.

For those of us, young and older, who care about issues like access to quality public health care, affordable housing, climate change, shifting to more renewable forms of energy and conserving what is left of our green lands and wetlands, and are aware of the Ford government’s dismal record on such issues, the thought of Ford winning another four-year term is depressing, to say the least.

However, we have to face reality.

Ford and his party would not be enjoying poll numbers like that if there were not a large enough number of people across Ontario who do not, just to mention a few examples, care as much about the rising cost of college tuition or about climate change or protecting wetlands and keeping plastic out of the Great Lakes as they do about getting tax cuts and cheaper gas or about having license sticker fees eliminated or mask mandates lifted.

Past elections polls have shown that a disproportionate number of older people, including aging baby boomers (a generation I happen to be a member of), vote Conservative or Republican if they south of the border.

They may have grown up listening to The Beatles singing ‘All You Need is Love’, but now it is more about what they want for themselves and how easily they can get it. As far as climate change is concerned, why should they care about that if the worst impacts aren’t realized until after they are gone?

I feel bad talking that way about my generation but generally speaking, that’s the way of it. And it is also important to know, as past elections have shown, that higher percentages of older people actually go out and vote.

Younger people may be more concerned about climate change and about such things as the rising costs of going to college or university or of putting a roof over their heads, but when it comes to voting in elections, their record has been poor.

So as much as it may horrify some of us, it is quite possible that Ford and his Conservatives could win another four-year term in government.

Through Niagara At Large, this journalist will continue to argue against another four years of Ford and friends in pieces clearly marked as commentaries.

However at this point, I do not hold out a great deal of hope that one of the other parties will win this election and as a long-time reporter on environmental and a host of other social justice issues, it sickens me to say that.

• Doug Draper, Niagara At Large

To visit the election polling project I referred to in this commentary and follow updates of its numbers and projections, click on – https://338canada.com/ontario/

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