A year or so before the pandemic started in 2020, signs like this began appearing on lawns in Buffalo neighbourhoods. Buffalo residents were trying to assure us that regardless of anything Trump, then serving his first term as U.S. President, had to say about Canada at that time, they considered us to be friends.
“It certainly is true Canadians’ opinion of the United States has plummeted. Surveys by Environics in the 2010s regularly found 60 to 70 per cent of Canadians held a favourable view of the US. But in September 2020, only 29 per cent held a favourable view. Canadian opinion recovered a bit with the election of Joe Biden but remains low, and is likely to fall lower with the return of Trump.” – from a News Release circulated by the Ontario-based polling survey group Data Shows
A Brief News Commentary by Doug Draper at Niagara At Large followed by News from the polling survey group Data Shows
Posted January 3rd, 2025 on Niagara At Large
The Peace Bridge crossing between Niagara, Ontario and Buffalo, New York
With only a few weeks left before President-elect returns to White House for a second term, this commentator has heard and read more than a little commentary from my fellow Canadians about their waning interest in crossing the Canada-U.S. border, even for a day of shopping.
While some of it may have to do with the diminishing value of our dollar against American currency, more often than not I hear people say they don’t want to go to a country with a president who, even before he is sworn in, is already threatening Canada with potentially crippling trade tariffs and is insulting Canada with not-so-funny “jokes” about making us the 51st state.
More often though, I hear people say they are feeling a little anxious or even afraid to cross the border when Trump is back in because of how ugly or violent things may get over there.
And there is the question of the border itself. How congested will the border crossings become with Trump and company vowing to go after anyone they think may an “illegal immigrant” or “drug trafficker” on day one?
With apologies to my friends in Buffalo and other parts of the United States, it is not out of the question that the number of Canadians opting to stay home rather than cross the Peace Bridge or other border crossings when Trump is sworn in will increase significantly.
It is not as if we didn’t have a lot of practice not crossing the border during the pandemic.
Now here is a News Release on this top from Data Shows, a a professional, non-partisan data gathering venue based in Ontario, Canada –
Vehicles waiting to cross into the U.S. at the Peace Bridge connecting Fort Erie, Ontario and Buffalo, New York.
Canadian residents’ trips to the United States in this year’s peak month were 13 per cent lower than 2019, though peak month trips to other international destinations were just one per cent lower than 2019, according to Statistics Canada data released December 23.
Canadian trips to the U.S. peak in August each year. Trips to other international destinations peak in March each year.
Canadian residents made 4.2 million trips to the U.S. this August, down over 600,000 trips from 4.8 million trips August 2019.
Canadian residents made 1.43 million trips to other international destinations in March this year, just 18,000 below the 1.45 million trips made in March 2019.
Same-day trips and land border crossing to U.S. drop
The number of trips to the U.S. by air is less than one per cent lower than before COVID. But land border crossings were down 16 per cent between August 2024 and August 2019.
The near-full recovery in air travel to the U.S. hides a big decline in same-day air travel trips. Air travel trips including at least one overnight stay have increased a littl more than four per cent from August 2019, surpassing 700,000 in August 2024. The number of same-day air trips has is relatively small — only 65,000 in August 2019 — but have fallen 53 per cent to just 31,000 in August 2024.
Similarly, trips across a land border point including at least one overnight stay were down 14 per cent while same-day trips across land border points were down 17 per cent.
Has inflation, Zoom and Trump cut US travel?
The value of the Canadian dollar of the doesn’t appear to be a significant factor in the drop in same-day and land crossing trips. In August 2019 a Canadian dollar could be exchanged for $0.75 USD, not much more than the $0.73 USD rate in August 2024.
Since 2019 there have been no major changes to border procedures that might dissuade travel.
Especially for business travellers, wider adoption of videoconferencing since the pandemic is likely part of the explanation. A same-day air flight from Montreal to Boston by plane or a car trip from Vancouver to Seattle is no longer an expected cost of supporting a U.S. business client.
And some internal processes could be affecting travel, especially non-business travel. As COVID travel restrictions lightened, inflation began to heat up, peaking at 8.1 per cent in June 2022. While the dollar hadn’t decreased much in exchange value, many Canadians had less of them left over at the end of the month, turning a trip into an unaffordable expense. The Canadians being particularly squeezed might fit the demographic of those who travel by car rather than by plane.
And it certainly is true Canadians’ opinion of the United States has plummeted. Surveys by Environics [ https://substack.com/redirect/bc9a65cf-2745-464b-aaad-0fa812ae81ed?j=eyJ1IjoiM3g4b3BsIn0.gTyF7RtVaWrg4_JLvD63hvYzJPuyQCsAk-UibLfp0Ec ] in the 2010s regularly found 60 to 70 per cent of Canadians held a favourable view of the US. But in September 2020 only 29 per cent held a favourable view. Canadian opinion recovered a bit with the election of Joe Biden but remains low, and is likely to fall lower with the return of Trump.
While quick business trips were replaced by Zoom, the quick personal visit across the border has perhaps become an unneeded expense to a place less-welcoming and more foreign-feeling than even before.
About Data Shows – Some things actually matter. And when they do, effective people use data to guide their actions and evaluate their results. Ineffective people hide the data.
Data Shows brings reliable data and data analysis from quality sources like StatsCan, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CIHI, elections commissions and others.
Data Shows’ editor is Tom Parkin. Contact me with interesting data, data chart or a guest piece you’d like to submit to Data Shows: tparkin@impact-strategies.ca .
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